Hot Chart of the Week

Gold and S&P 500 Near All-Time Highs

Gold and the S&P 500 near all-time highs. It is uncommon for both Gold and the S&P 500 to be at all-time highs simultaneously. Apart from August 2020, the last time both Gold and the S&P 500 were at their highs was over 10 years ago.

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share: Boosted by Lower Corporate Tax Rate

Earnings expectations increased significantly in 2018 when Trump cut the corporate tax rate. We could see a similar move in earnings if Trump cuts the corporate tax rate further.

The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is Rising

The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is rising compared to the Eurozone's, enhancing relative economic prospects.

US businesses are seeing improved business activity, which may be a leading indicator to GDP growth.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November Exceeded Expectations

ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November exceeded expectations, marking the first expansion in 8 months. This indicates positive prospects for future manufacturing activity.

Money Supply (M2) has Finally Turned Positive

Money Supply (M2) has finally turned positive. Positive M2 is supportive of growth and markets.

S&P 500 Outperforms International Equities

The S&P 500 has massively outperformed International Equities for over the past 10 years.

Investment Grade Spreads are at 25-Year Lows

Investment Grade Spreads (Yield Spread over Treasuries) are at 25-year lows, aligning with S&P 500’s all-time highs.

The US Dollar Has Been Strong

The US Dollar has been strong, which may reflect an improvement in relative economic growth and comparatively higher government yields.

Small Business Optimism Has Again Increased

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

Both The NAHB Homebuilder Index and The LEI Index Have Improved

The LEI Index has entered positive territory for the first time in almost three years and the NAHB has reached its highest point in nearly a year, even with elevated mortgage rates.

Treasury To Use $800b General Account For Deficit During Debt Ceiling Negotiation

The Treasury’s General Account, amounting in $800 billion, will be utilized to address the government’s deficit while the Debt Ceiling is being negotiated, thus providing liquidity to the system.

Has The Two-Year Manufacturing Recession In The United States Ended?

The ISM Manufacturing Index indicates that the two-year manufacturing recession in the United States has ended.

The Euro STOXX 50 Reaches Its First High In 25 Years

The Euro STOXX 50 reaches its first high in 25 years.

The $800B TGA Will Support Market Liquidity

As with the Debt Ceiling Limit negotiations of 2021 and 2023, the $800B Treasury General Account’s (TGA) will be used to temporarily cover the Government’s deficit, Supporting Market Liquidity.

ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders Shifted Back Into Contraction

ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders shifted back into contraction, weakening economic resilience against negative surprises.

German 10-Year Yields Spike

German 10-year yields spiked as the government considers a constitutional amendment to increase defense spending.

Unemployment Shows No Notable Rise

Despite significant noise, there has not been a notable rise in unemployment claims.

BBB Corporate Spreads Remain Relatively Low

BBB corporate spreads (i.e. risk measure) remain relatively low despite equity market selloff.

Are Tariff Concerns Contributing to Increased Inflation Expectations?

Are tariff concerns contributing to increased inflation expectations?

Price of Money and Oil are Down

Trump was able to get the price of money (10 Year Yields) and the price of oil down. But at what cost?

The U.S. Dollar is Down

The U.S. Dollar is down nearly 10% this year, providing support for global liquidity.

Volatility in the Treasury Market

The 10-year and 2-year yield curve has steepened to 54 basis points, with the 2-year yield dropping 33 basis points more than the 10-year since the start of the year.

Investment Grade Spreads Have Declined

Investment grade spreads have declined from their peak on April 8th, a welcomed sign for economic growth.

Is This The Return of Negative Yields?

Is this the return of negative yields? Switzerland’s 2-year yield turned negative for the first time since 2022.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Low

Weekly unemployment claims remain low, signaling continued strength in the labor market. This key real-time indicator suggests resilience despite broader economic uncertainties.

Outstanding Federal Debt

Over the past 20 years, U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled. This dramatic shift has profound implications for economic policy, interest rates, and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Retail Sales Are Improving

Retail sales are improving despite low consumer confidence.