Gold and the S&P 500 near all-time highs. It is uncommon for both Gold and the S&P 500 to be at all-time highs simultaneously. Apart from August 2020, the last time both Gold and the S&P 500 were at their highs was over 10 years ago.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/02/2024
Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory
Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/08/2024
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share: Boosted by Lower Corporate Tax Rate
Earnings expectations increased significantly in 2018 when Trump cut the corporate tax rate. We could see a similar move in earnings if Trump cuts the corporate tax rate further.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/15/2024
The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is Rising
The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is rising compared to the Eurozone's, enhancing relative economic prospects.
US businesses are seeing improved business activity, which may be a leading indicator to GDP growth.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/25/2024
ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November Exceeded Expectations
ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November exceeded expectations, marking the first expansion in 8 months. This indicates positive prospects for future manufacturing activity.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/03/2024
Money Supply (M2) has Finally Turned Positive
Money Supply (M2) has finally turned positive. Positive M2 is supportive of growth and markets.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/10/2024
S&P 500 Outperforms International Equities
The S&P 500 has massively outperformed International Equities for over the past 10 years.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/16/2024
Investment Grade Spreads are at 25-Year Lows
Investment Grade Spreads (Yield Spread over Treasuries) are at 25-year lows, aligning with S&P 500’s all-time highs.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/16/2024
The US Dollar Has Been Strong
The US Dollar has been strong, which may reflect an improvement in relative economic growth and comparatively higher government yields.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/06/2025
Small Business Optimism Has Again Increased
Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/14/2025
Both The NAHB Homebuilder Index and The LEI Index Have Improved
The LEI Index has entered positive territory for the first time in almost three years and the NAHB has reached its highest point in nearly a year, even with elevated mortgage rates.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/21/2025
Treasury To Use $800b General Account For Deficit During Debt Ceiling Negotiation
The Treasury’s General Account, amounting in $800 billion, will be utilized to address the government’s deficit while the Debt Ceiling is being negotiated, thus providing liquidity to the system.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/03/2025
Has The Two-Year Manufacturing Recession In The United States Ended?
The ISM Manufacturing Index indicates that the two-year manufacturing recession in the United States has ended.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/11/2025
The Euro STOXX 50 Reaches Its First High In 25 Years
The Euro STOXX 50 reaches its first high in 25 years.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/19/2025
The $800B TGA Will Support Market Liquidity
As with the Debt Ceiling Limit negotiations of 2021 and 2023, the $800B Treasury General Account’s (TGA) will be used to temporarily cover the Government’s deficit, Supporting Market Liquidity.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/24/2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders Shifted Back Into Contraction
ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders shifted back into contraction, weakening economic resilience against negative surprises.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/03/2025
German 10-Year Yields Spike
German 10-year yields spiked as the government considers a constitutional amendment to increase defense spending.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/10/2025
Unemployment Shows No Notable Rise
Despite significant noise, there has not been a notable rise in unemployment claims.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/17/2025
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/24/2025
Are Tariff Concerns Contributing to Increased Inflation Expectations?
Are tariff concerns contributing to increased inflation expectations?
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/31/2025
Price of Money and Oil are Down
Trump was able to get the price of money (10 Year Yields) and the price of oil down. But at what cost?
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/07/2025
The U.S. Dollar is Down
The U.S. Dollar is down nearly 10% this year, providing support for global liquidity.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/15/2025
Volatility in the Treasury Market
The 10-year and 2-year yield curve has steepened to 54 basis points, with the 2-year yield dropping 33 basis points more than the 10-year since the start of the year.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/21/2025
Investment Grade Spreads Have Declined
Investment grade spreads have declined from their peak on April 8th, a welcomed sign for economic growth.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/28/2025
Is This The Return of Negative Yields?
Is this the return of negative yields? Switzerland’s 2-year yield turned negative for the first time since 2022.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/05/2025
Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Low
Weekly unemployment claims remain low, signaling continued strength in the labor market. This key real-time indicator suggests resilience despite broader economic uncertainties.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/12/2025
Outstanding Federal Debt
Over the past 20 years, U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled. This dramatic shift has profound implications for economic policy, interest rates, and long-term fiscal sustainability.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/19/2025
Retail Sales Are Improving
Retail sales are improving despite low consumer confidence.
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 06/02/2025