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Hot Chart of the Week

#HOTCHARTOFTHEWEEK

Gold and S&P 500 Near All-Time Highs

11/02/2024

Gold and the S&P 500 near all-time highs. It is uncommon for both Gold and the S&P 500 to be at all-time highs simultaneously. Apart from August 2020, the last time both Gold and the S&P 500 were at their highs was over 10 years ago.

Gold and S&P 500 Near All-Time Highs
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/02/2024

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

11/08/2024

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/08/2024

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share: Boosted by Lower Corporate Tax Rate

11/15/2024

Earnings expectations increased significantly in 2018 when Trump cut the corporate tax rate. We could see a similar move in earnings if Trump cuts the corporate tax rate further.

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share: Boosted by Lower Corporate Tax Rate
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/15/2024

The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is Rising

11/25/2024

The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is rising compared to the Eurozone's, enhancing relative economic prospects.

US businesses are seeing improved business activity, which may be a leading indicator to GDP growth.

The U.S. Purchaser Managers’ Index (PMI) is Rising
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 11/25/2024

ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November Exceeded Expectations

12/03/2024

ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November exceeded expectations, marking the first expansion in 8 months. This indicates positive prospects for future manufacturing activity.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders for November Exceeded Expectations
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/03/2024

Money Supply (M2) has Finally Turned Positive

12/10/2024

Money Supply (M2) has finally turned positive. Positive M2 is supportive of growth and markets.

Money Supply (M2) has Finally Turned Positive
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/10/2024

S&P 500 Outperforms International Equities

12/16/2024

The S&P 500 has massively outperformed International Equities for over the past 10 years.

S&P 500 Outperforms International Equities
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/16/2024

Investment Grade Spreads are at 25-Year Lows

12/16/2024

Investment Grade Spreads (Yield Spread over Treasuries) are at 25-year lows, aligning with S&P 500’s all-time highs.

Investment Grade Spreads are at 25-Year Lows
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 12/16/2024

The US Dollar Has Been Strong

01/06/2025

The US Dollar has been strong, which may reflect an improvement in relative economic growth and comparatively higher government yields.

The US Dollar Has Been Strong
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/06/2025

Small Business Optimism Has Again Increased

01/14/2025

Small Business Optimism Increased in 2016 Following Trump's Victory

Small Business Optimism Has Again Increased
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/14/2025

Both The NAHB Homebuilder Index and The LEI Index Have Improved

01/21/2025

The LEI Index has entered positive territory for the first time in almost three years and the NAHB has reached its highest point in nearly a year, even with elevated mortgage rates.

Both The NAHB Homebuilder Index and The LEI Index Have Improved
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 01/21/2025

Treasury To Use $800b General Account For Deficit During Debt Ceiling Negotiation

02/03/2025

The Treasury’s General Account, amounting in $800 billion, will be utilized to address the government’s deficit while the Debt Ceiling is being negotiated, thus providing liquidity to the system.

Treasury To Use $800b General Account For Deficit During Debt Ceiling Negotiation
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/03/2025

Has The Two-Year Manufacturing Recession In The United States Ended?

02/11/2025

The ISM Manufacturing Index indicates that the two-year manufacturing recession in the United States has ended.

Has The Two-Year Manufacturing Recession In The United States Ended?
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/11/2025

The Euro STOXX 50 Reaches Its First High In 25 Years

02/19/2025

The Euro STOXX 50 reaches its first high in 25 years.

The Euro STOXX 50 Reaches Its First High In 25 Years
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/19/2025

The $800B TGA Will Support Market Liquidity

02/24/2025

As with the Debt Ceiling Limit negotiations of 2021 and 2023, the $800B Treasury General Account’s (TGA) will be used to temporarily cover the Government’s deficit, Supporting Market Liquidity.

The $800B TGA Will Support Market Liquidity
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 02/24/2025

ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders Shifted Back Into Contraction

03/03/2025

ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders shifted back into contraction, weakening economic resilience against negative surprises.

ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders Shifted Back Into Contraction
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/03/2025

German 10-Year Yields Spike

03/10/2025

German 10-year yields spiked as the government considers a constitutional amendment to increase defense spending.

German 10-Year Yields Spike
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/10/2025

Unemployment Shows No Notable Rise

03/17/2025

Despite significant noise, there has not been a notable rise in unemployment claims.

Unemployment Shows No Notable Rise
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/17/2025

BBB Corporate Spreads Remain Relatively Low

03/24/2025

BBB corporate spreads (i.e. risk measure) remain relatively low despite equity market selloff.

BBB Corporate Spreads Remain Relatively Low
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/24/2025

Are Tariff Concerns Contributing to Increased Inflation Expectations?

03/31/2025

Are tariff concerns contributing to increased inflation expectations?

Are Tariff Concerns Contributing to Increased Inflation Expectations?
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 03/31/2025

Price of Money and Oil are Down

04/07/2025

Trump was able to get the price of money (10 Year Yields) and the price of oil down. But at what cost?

Price of Money and Oil are Down
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/07/2025

The U.S. Dollar is Down

04/15/2025

The U.S. Dollar is down nearly 10% this year, providing support for global liquidity.

The U.S. Dollar is Down
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/15/2025

Volatility in the Treasury Market

04/21/2025

The 10-year and 2-year yield curve has steepened to 54 basis points, with the 2-year yield dropping 33 basis points more than the 10-year since the start of the year.

Volatility in the Treasury Market
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/21/2025

Investment Grade Spreads Have Declined

04/28/2025

Investment grade spreads have declined from their peak on April 8th, a welcomed sign for economic growth.

Investment Grade Spreads Gave Declined
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 04/28/2025

Is This The Return of Negative Yields?

05/05/2025

Is this the return of negative yields? Switzerland’s 2-year yield turned negative for the first time since 2022.

Is This The Return of Negative Yields?
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/05/2025

Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Low

05/12/2025

Weekly unemployment claims remain low, signaling continued strength in the labor market. This key real-time indicator suggests resilience despite broader economic uncertainties.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Low
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/12/2025

Outstanding Federal Debt

05/19/2025

Over the past 20 years, U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled. This dramatic shift has profound implications for economic policy, interest rates, and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Outstanding Federal Debt
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 05/19/2025

Retail Sales Are Improving

06/02/2025

Retail sales are improving despite low consumer confidence.

Retail Sales Are Improving chart
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FactSet and Treasury Partners as of 06/02/2025

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