In a recent Chart of the Week we pointed out that the 2 Year Treasury yield recently exceeded the S&P 500’s dividend yield for the first time since the financial crisis. Although a 2 Year Treasury yield in the 2.40% range certainly isn’t high by pre-crisis standards, it’s still a good reminder of just how much […]
At first glance, the words “puzzle” and “mystery” seem synonymous. Both imply there is something hidden, not immediately apparent. Both are often spoken of as being “solved”—even though completing a crossword puzzle is quite different in degree than the unmasking of the murderer by the detective at the end of a mystery novel. Look the […]
“I have a right to be blind sometimes… I really do not see the signal!” –Admiral Horatio, Baron Nelson of the Nile. In 1801, the British Royal Navy attacked the Danish fleet in the harbor of Copenhagen. At one point in the battle, Lord Nelson, in command of a part of the fleet, was ordered […]
“It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look further than you can see.” –Winston Churchill Last December, rates seemed ready to make an upward break back toward the long-term average, after spending years below it. The yield on the ten year treasury reached 3%, 132 basis points higher than at the end […]
“The better part of Valour, is Discretion…” -William Shakespeare (Falstaff, Henry IV Part 1, Act 5, Scene 3) “Asymmetric,” according to the dictionary, means “not symmetrical; lacking symmetry; misproportioned;” in other words, lopsided. If one ascribes to the typical belief—articulated by Aristotle, amongst others—that symmetry is an ingredient of beauty, it follows, then, that asymmetry […]
“Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks.” – Mark Twain On the 19th of March, Janet Yellen startled much of the investing world when, in the press conference following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, she suggested that the first increase in the overnight rate could come six months […]
“Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get.” –Mark Twain The purpose of this blog was—and is—to discuss macroeconomic events in the general context of the US interest rate market. It is not intended to become a running discussion of the weather in New England, New York and the Lower 48 as a […]
“The purpose of the new asset purchase program is to foster a stronger economic recovery, or, put differently, to help the economy attain ‘escape velocity.’ By lowering longer-term interest rates, these asset purchases are expected to spur spending”. Janet L. Yellen January’s nonfarm payrolls again disappointed markets (nonfarm payrolls were 113k vs 180k consensus, following […]
“In war, events of importance are the result of trivial causes.” –Julius Caesar In 1969, Edward Norton Lorenz, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, coined the term “the butterfly effect” as a simple way to describe his concept of the non-linear behavior of variables in a weather-prediction model. The tiniest change […]
In this final piece of our “Unintended Consequences” series, we further examine the consequences of disintermediation of dealers in the fixed income markets and discuss the increasing role of ETFs and credit mutual funds in market-making. We also conclude the series by discussing the portfolio management toolkit that investors can use to help shield themselves […]
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This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors.
All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.
This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
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about the authors
began his career in the financial services industry in 1997 with AIG International. He has been associated with David D’Amico and Steven Feit since 1998, and joined Richard Saperstein at CIBC Oppenheimer in 2002.
Mr. Jones is Treasury Partners’ Senior Portfolio Manager and a member of the Portfolio Management Group. He implements and maintains our fixed income investment portfolios, and invests considerable time communicating with “the Street” and assessing developments within both the bond market and broader financial markets.
began his career in the financial services industry in 2002 with General Electric Asset Management, and was a fixed income corporate research analyst prior to joining Treasury Partners in 2009.
He is a member of our Portfolio Management Group. His responsibilities include performing top-down, macro due diligence and developing investment strategies across fixed income, equity, and ETF markets.
joined Treasury Partners in May 2015 as a municipal analyst with our Portfolio Management Group. He previously was a senior analyst with Public Financial Management, a financial advisor to state and local governments and other public sector institutions.
He analyzes municipal issuers' outstanding debt, and performs related quantitative analytics with the objective of identifying high quality credits with competitive pricing and yields.
began his career in 2008 with J.P. Morgan and joined Treasury Partners in 2009. He is a member of our Portfolio Management Group with primary responsibilities in the areas of portfolio analytics, research and reporting, investment due diligence, and third party manager analysis.
Mr. Saad conducts ongoing evaluations of the equity and fixed income portfolios strategies we manage internally, and monitors the investment managers we engage to run selected equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies.